Somalia
peace process faces collapse
Wednesday
22 December 2004, 9:23 Makka Time, 6:23 GMT
Somalia's
peace process is facing collapse and the country risks
becoming a dangerous failed state, a new report says.
The International Crisis Group
(IGC), a conflict resolution organisation, said on Tuesday
that a genuine government of national unity needs to
emerge to save the country.
Despite the
apparent progress indicated by the
declaration of a Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG)
in October 2004, the peace process is very fragile, said the
Brussels-based organisation.
The IGC said the TFG have
made no real attempt to effect reconciliation inside Somalia,
and there has been little progress towards resolving the many
issues that have divided Somalis for years.
Still controlled by a patchwork
of factions, Somalia's land remains occupied, and
violations of the ceasefire and UN arms embargo are rife.
"The Transitional Federal
Government has to tackle these issues, while earning the
legitimacy to do so effectively," said Matt Bryden, an
IGC senior analyst.
Protracted crisis
"If it does not then the
peace process will stall, and Somalia's stubborn leaders will
likely return to all-out violence," he said.
"If it [the TNG] does not [tackle
Somalia's problems] then the peace process will
stall, and Somalia's stubborn leaders will likely
return to all-out violence"
Matt Bryden,
After nearly 15 years of statelessness and
civil strife, and two years of arduous peace negotiations in
Kenya, Somalia seemed to be emerging from its protracted
crisis.
But the peace process has gone largely
downhill since then.
The 15 December deadline for
the TFG's return to Somalia expired with it still in Nairobi,
citing insecurity in its homeland.
The transitional parliament,
also in Nairobi, elected Colonel Abd Allahi Yusuf Ahmad as
interim president.
For many Somalis, this was not
a step towards peace because, they claim, he heads an armed
group.
Yusuf sidestepped the
transitional charter to appoint his candidate as prime
minister, who then put together a large cabinet heavily
weighted with Yusuf allies.
National unity
Several appointees immediately
resigned, and the remainder were voted out by parliament in a
session that degenerated into fisticuffs, forcing the
dissolution of the entire cabinet.
Somalia
has had no government
Rather than attempt to impose their own agenda
on the transition, the IGC said Yusuf and his partners needed
to form an inclusive, broad-based transitional government of
national unity.
The international community must make clear
that only if this happens will the TFG get recognition and
desperately needed support, said the organisation.
"The longer the political
process remains gridlocked, the less hesitation dissatisfied
groups will have about withdrawing from the process and
becoming armed opposition," said Suliman Baldo, the IGC's
director of Africa programme.
Somalia has been without a
central government since President Siad Barre was overthrown
in 1991.
Fighting between rival factions
and famine and disease have led to the death of up to one
million people since then.
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